Bushfires

Intentional Manipulation Of Human Behaviour Is Driving Climate Disruption, Migration & Ecological Overshoot

2024-03-01:  Too many strategic mistakes are being made, and too much uninformed ‘group-think’ is evident, in the – NOW – frantic human scramble to head off Climate Disruption … and attain Sustainable Human & Social Development … an intricate, open, dynamic and continuously evolving concept which is still not properly understood.

In a Split Human Personality which is clearly observed amid today’s geopolitical turmoil … much of one ‘personality’ is involved in this positive, yet arduous Ecological Rescue Attempt … while the other ‘personality’ stubbornly ignores the enormous negative impacts on that Task by:  (i) the #USA #UK #NATO Proxy War in #Ukraine ;  (ii) the ongoing Extermination of the Palestinian People & Culture in Illegally Occupied Territories by #Zionists intent on establishing a Greater Israel ;  and (iii) the growing Hostility of the Global South towards the #West caused by (i) and (ii), just when global unified and concerted action on climate disruption is urgently required.

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Uninformed Group-Think …

Sustainability Impact Assessment of Electric Vehicles

In June 2023, Rowan Atkinson (aka Mr.Bean … and surprise surprise, he has a degree in electrical and electronic engineering with a masters in control systems) wrote a serious Opinion Piece in England’s Guardian Newspaper/Website/Smart Phone App: I Love Electric Vehicles – and Was An Early Adopter.  But Increasingly I Feel Dupedhttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/03/electric-vehicles-early-adopter-petrol-car-ev-environment-rowan-atkinson

Rowan’s well-reasoned conclusion … “Sadly, keeping your old petrol car may be better than buying an Electric Vehicle (#EV).  There are sound environmental reasons not to jump just yet.”

EV’s should properly be evaluated using Full Life Cycle Sustainability Impact Assessment … not just checking one, very beneficial but isolated, type of performance, i.e. zero exhaust emissions.

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Colour photograph showing a raging Electric Vehicle / Car Fire on a narrow road.  The car is turned upside down.  The photograph shows the scene after the initial Lithium-Ion Battery related explosion, and when the fire is being attended to by Fire Services.  In the far background, a large group of onlookers has gathered to view these strange events.  Click to enlarge.

Without even mentioning the #FireSafety Issues associated with Lithium-Ion Batteries in e-Cars (and e-Scooters, e-Bikes, e-Wheelchairs, etc.) … Rowan was / is correct … yet he was swamped with a ‘tonne of abuse’ for daring to voice an unfashionable opinion … to question the current majoritarian group-think on EV’s.

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Mining Cobalt for Lithium-Ion Batteries – Serious Rights Violations in DRC

Back in November 2017, Amnesty International (#AI) published a Report: TIME TO RECHARGE – Corporate Action and Inaction To Tackle Abuses In The Cobalt Supply Chainhttps://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/afr62/7395/2017/en/

The Report’s Executive Summary begins …

‘ Our world is increasingly powered by Lithium-Ion Batteries, ranging from the ones found in everyday mobile technologies, such as smartphones and laptop computers, to those in electric vehicles.  There is also a growing interest in using super-sized rechargeable batteries to help store electricity generated from solar and wind sources and deliver it to consumers more efficiently.  These technologies are attractive because of their perceived sustainability.  But as their use becomes more and more widespread, in what some are calling the ‘clean energy revolution’, it is necessary to ask whether the energy powering this revolution is as ‘clean’ as it is claimed to be.

Cobalt is an element critical for powering the clean energy revolution.  More than 50% of the world’s cobalt supply originates in the Democratic Republic of Congo (#DRC).’

The 2017 Report builds on an earlier report: ‘This is What We Die For’, first published by Amnesty International and #Afrewatch in 2016, which showed how #Cobalt mined by young children and adults – in very hazardous conditions and in serious violation of their Human Rights – entered the supply chains of many of the world’s biggest brands.  The new report assesses the policies and practices of 29 companies and how much their cobalt-sourcing practices have improved since then.

Did anybody really care that these Human Rights Violations were taking place in #Africa ?   NO.

Was the strength and pace of mushrooming world Lithium-Ion Battery production in any way affected by the 2017 AI Report ??   NO.

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Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA)

Important Policy and Decision Making Mistakes can be attributed to the lack of rigorous Sustainability Impact Assessment.  ( Environmental Impact Assessment ignores the other important aspects of Sustainable Development … and therefore is limited, inadequate, and out-of-date.)  Instead, #SIA should be deeply embedded in both processes as a matter of regular routine …

Sustainability Impact Assessment:  A continual evaluation and optimization process – informing initial decision-making, design, shaping activity / product / service realization, useful life, and termination or final disposal – of the interrelated positive and negative social, environmental, economic, institutional, political and legal impacts on balanced and equitable implementation of Sustainable Human & Social Development.

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Signs & Symptoms

Environmental Signs of Planet Breakdown include: Climate Disruption, Biodiversity Loss, Ocean Acidification, Coral Reef Destruction, Extreme Heatwaves and Droughts, Intense Wildfires, Polar Ice Cap Retreat and Collapse, Amazon Forest Dieback, etc., etc.

The example of Electric Vehicles above is a small indication that something more serious is wrong with Human Behaviour generally.  It is a Human Symptom … one which opens up the potential of exploring a different approach to solving the World’s Ecological Overshoot.

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2023 Ecology & Environmental Science Paper

World Scientists’ Warning: The Behavioural Crisis Driving Ecological Overshoot

[ Download PDF File, 595 Kb ]

This very interesting Paper points to the start, and elaborates a beginning – not the end – of an innovative Human Behaviour Research Path … with the practical aim of effectively heading off Climate Disruption and attaining Sustainable Human and Social Development.

Scientific Paper’s Abstract

Previously, Anthropogenic Ecological Overshoot has been identified as a fundamental cause of the myriad signs we see around the globe today from biodiversity loss and ocean acidification to the disturbing rise in novel entities and climate disruption.  In the present paper, we have examined this more deeply, and explore the human behavioural drivers of overshoot, providing evidence that overshoot is itself a symptom of a deeper, more subversive modern crisis of human behaviour.  We work to name and frame this crisis as the Human Behavioural Crisis and propose the crisis be recognised globally as a critical intervention point for tackling ecological overshoot.  We demonstrate how current interventions are largely physical, resource intensive, slow-moving and focused on addressing the signs of ecological overshoot (such as climate disruption) rather than the real cause (maladaptive behaviours).  We argue that even in the best-case scenarios, sign level interventions are unlikely to avoid catastrophe or achieve more than ephemeral progress.

We explore three Drivers of the Behavioural Crisis in depth:  (a) Economic Growth ;  (b) Marketing & Advertising ;  and (c) Pro-Natalism.  These three drivers directly impact the three Levers of Ecological Overshoot:  1.Over Consumption ;  2.Excessive Waste ;  and 3.Population Growth.  We demonstrate how the maladaptive behaviours of overshoot stemming from these three drivers have been catalysed and perpetuated by the intentional exploitation of previously adaptive human impulses.

In the final sections of this paper, we propose an Interdisciplinary Emergency Response to the behavioural crisis by, amongst other things, the shifting of social norms relating to reproduction, consumption and waste.  We seek to highlight a critical disconnect that is an ongoing societal gulf in communication between those that know, such as scientists working within limits to growth … and those members of the citizenry, largely influenced by social scientists and industry, that must act.

Paper Conclusion

In summary, the evidence indicates that Anthropogenic Ecological Overshoot stems from a crisis of maladaptive human behaviours.  While the behaviours generating overshoot were once adaptive for Homo Sapiens, they have been distorted and extended to the point where they now threaten the fabric of complex life on Earth.  Simply, we are trapped in a system built to encourage growth and appetites that will end us.

The current emphasis for overshoot intervention is Resource Intensive (e.g. the global transition to renewable energy), and Single Environmental Sign Focused.  Indeed, most mainstream attention and investment is directed towards mitigating and adapting to climate disruption.  Even if this narrow intervention is successful, it will not resolve the meta-crisis of ecological overshoot.  In fact, with many of the current resource-intensive interventions, it is likely to make matters worse.  Psychological interventions are likely to prove far less resource-intensive and more effective than physical ones.

  • We call for increased attention on the behavioural crisis as a critical intervention point for addressing overshoot and its myriad signs ;
  • We advocate increased interdisciplinary collaboration between the social and behavioural science theorists and practitioners, advised by scientists working on limits to growth and planetary boundaries ;
  • We call for additional research to develop a full understanding of the many dimensions of the behavioural crisis (including the overwhelming influence of power structures) and how we can best address it ;
  • We call for an emergency, concerted, multidisciplinary effort to target the populations and value levers most likely to produce rapid global adoption of new consumption, reproduction and waste norms congruent with the survival of complex life on Earth ;
  • We call for increased interdisciplinary work to be carried out in directing, understanding and policing widespread behaviour manipulation.

The Clock Is Ticking not only because the health of the natural systems upon which we are utterly dependent is deteriorating, but also because broad sweep interventions are only possible when a society holds together and is capable of coherent action.  As the effects of overshoot worsen, the likelihood of societal breakdown increases.  We still have an opportunity to be proactive and utilise the intact systems we have in place to deliver a framework for shifting social norms and other necessities for addressing the behavioural crisis.  However, the day may come when societal breakdown will make intervention impossible, locking the planet into an unguided recovery that may salvage much of Nature but be inhospitable to human life.

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Are We Trapped in a System built to encourage growth and appetites that will end us ?

OR … Are Humans a Virus intent on devouring the last of this Planet’s Limited Resources (as postulated by Agent Smith) ??

What do YOU think ?

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#ProxyWar #GazaGhetto #Genocide #IndependentPalestine #GreaterIsrael #GlobalSouth #GlobalNorth #FeuxDeForêt #SustainabilityImpactAssessment #ElectricVehicles #eCars #eScooters #eWheelchairs #ClimateDisruption #ClimateSynergies #ClimateTippingPoints #ExterminationOfPalestinians #RowanAtkinson #MrBean #LithiumIonBatteries #England #Migration #GuardianNewspaper #EnvironmentalSigns #HumanSymptoms #Anthropogenic #EcologicalOvershoot #HumanBehaviouralCrisis #InterdisciplinaryEmergencyResponse #ResourceIntensive #SingleEnvironmentalSignFocused #BiodiversityLoss #OceanAcidification #CoralReefDestruction #ExtremeHeatwaves #ExtremeDroughts #IntenseWildfires #PolarIceCapRetreat #AmazonForestDieback #Bushfires #IncendiBoschivi #IncendiosForestales #OrmanYangınları #IncêndiosFlorestais #AmnestyInternational #DriversOfBehaviouralCrisis #EconomicGrowth #Marketing #Advertising #ProNatalism #LeversOfEcologicalOvershoot #OverConsumption #ExcessiveWaste #PopulationGrowth #ClockIsTicking

The Global Wildfire Challenge & Learning To Live With Fire

2019-04-05 (2021-07-22):  Let us imagine, for a moment, that we are in another dimension … The Twilight Zone …

… and that this is a Positive Energy Building, set in a sprawling, diverse, interconnected and flourishing #Woodland with its ecosystems, flora and fauna … an idealized scene … the Sustainability Idyll

Colour photograph proposing, as the Sustainability Idyll, a Positive Energy Building in the midst of a diverse, interconnected and flourishing Woodland.  Climate disruption is increasing the risk of more frequent and intense Wildfires, threatening this idealized scene.  Click to enlarge.

But … is it … ??   What percentage of the world’s population would ever have the opportunity to live this way ???

And … lurking all around this beautiful scene, is an inherent and growing threat to life, property, and those trees, shrubs, and wildlife … #Wildfires / #Bushfires …

The Aim of Sustainable Fire Engineering (#SFE) is to dramatically reduce direct and indirect fire losses in the Human Environment (including the social, built, economic, virtual, and institutional environments) … to protect the Natural Environment … and, within Buildings, to ensure that there is an effective level of Fire Safety for All Users / Occupants, not just for Some, during the full building life cycle.

[ Human Environment:  Anywhere there is, or has been, an intrusion by a human being in the Natural Environment. ]

So … how do we reduce direct and indirect fire losses in the Human Environment … and improve its #Resilience ?

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A recent publication provides a good platform – a benchmark – to begin this serious conversation …

December 2018 … the International Union of Forest Research Organizations (#IUFRO), which is based in Vienna, published Occasional Paper No. 32: ‘GLOBAL FIRE CHALLENGES IN A WARMING WORLD – Summary Note of a Global Expert Workshop on Fire and Climate Change’ …

IUFRO Occasional Paper 32 – Cover Page.  Click to enlarge.

GLOBAL FIRE CHALLENGES IN A WARMING WORLD – Summary Note of a Global Expert Workshop on Fire and Climate Change   (PDF File, 4.72MB)

Executive Summary

Today, catastrophic wildfires are increasingly common across the globe.  Recent disasters have attracted media attention and strengthened the perception of wildfires as ‘bad’ events, a plague worsened by climate disruption that has yet to be eradicated.  Although it is true that fire has a destructive potential, the reality of global fire activity depicts a much more complex picture in which fire can be a useful, if not necessary, tool for food security and the preservation of cultural landscapes, as well as a an integral element of many ecosystems and their biodiversity.

Global fire activity is shaped by diverse social, economic, and natural drivers influencing the fire environment.  The culminating complexity of these factors defines, in turn, the likelihood of a landscape to burn and the potential positive or negative outcomes for communities and ecosystems that can result from a blaze.  Although many regions remain understudied, the effects of ongoing climate disruption associated with other planetary changes are already visible, transforming fire activity in ways that are not well understood but are likely to be dramatic, with potential dire consequences for nature, and society in case of #Adaptation failure.

Based on the limited available statistics, there is a growing trend in the cost of wildfires.  In addition to human lives that are lost to flames or smoke, and the billions of euros imputable to firefighting and insurance coverage, the growing interest in costs linked to healthcare, business stability, or the provision of ecosystem services such as drinking-water indicates negative economic consequences impacting countries’ GDP and social stability.  Attempts to evaluate the future costs of wildfire disasters point at a worsening situation, yet the list of possible social and economic effects is incomplete and the magnitude of envisaged impacts is conservative.

Notwithstanding the difficulties inherent to global climate modelling, there is a scientific consensus on the future increase in the frequency of fire-conducive weather associated with drier ecosystems, a mix that will eventually result in more frequent and intense fire activity.  When combined with an ever-growing world population and unsustainable land uses, the conditions leading to fire disaster will only be intensified.  Although fire governance has historically advocated for fire suppression, a ‘NO FIRE’ motto is not an option anymore in the new fire reality.  Current policies aiming at total fire suppression have been shown to be detrimental and are therefore outdated.  The key to wildfire disaster risk reduction in a changing world now lies in learning to live with fire.

Investments in international co-operation, integrated management, local community involvement, cutting-edge technologies, and long-term data collection are critically needed to ensure the future of fire disaster risk mitigation.  Moreover, future land development policies must prioritize the protection and the restoration of natural and cultural landscapes that have been degraded by the inappropriate use of fire or, conversely, by historical fire exclusion; keeping a place for fire in forest resource management and landscape restoration has been shown to be a cost-effective and efficient solution to reduce fire hazard.

Overall, synthesis of globally available scientific evidence revealed the following key issues for Landscape Management and Governance:

  • Climate Disruption, with longer, hotter, and drier fire seasons, in combination with other environmental changes linked to population growth and unsustainable land-use practices, is contributing to extreme wildfire events that exceed existing fire management capacities.  The world is entering a ‘new reality’ that demands new approaches to fire governance.
  • Fire is an inherent feature of the Earth System and many ecosystems, including their fauna, are dependent on it for their long-term survival; nevertheless, ongoing changes in global fire activity in terms of location, intensity, severity, and frequency will have immense costs for biodiversity, ecosystem services, human well-being and livelihoods, and national economies – to extents that have yet to be evaluated.  Investment in social, economic, and environmental monitoring is therefore urgent, especially in under-studied regions.
  • Integrated fire risk reduction is key to adapting to ongoing changes in global fire risk.  Future #Sustainable Fire Risk Mitigation demands integrated region-specific approaches based on a clear understanding of fires in context, population awareness and preparedness, fire surveillance and early-warning systems, adaptive suppression strategies, fire-regime restoration, landscape-scale fuel management, changes to many land use practices, and active restoration of landscapes.
  • Engagement with local communities, land-owners, businesses and public stakeholders – via multiple tiers of governance – is crucial to restore and maintain landscapes that are biodiverse and functional, respectful of local cultures and identities, economically productive, and above all, fire-resilient.
  • People have historically achieved sustainable co-existence with flammable ecosystems and have often used fire as a land-management tool, thereby shaping many modern and long-standing landscapes around the world.  Traditional fire knowledge is thus key to adapting to local changes in fire activity, using known techniques for the reduction of dangerous fuel loads, prescribed burning and sustainable landscape management practices.
  • Building adaptive capacity to confront fires must be based on knowledge of the natural and cultural roles of fire, how they have shaped our modern landscapes, and their importance in the long-term functioning of socio-ecological systems.  Further developments in land-system science, geospatial technologies, and computer modelling will enhance our understanding of the long-term ecological and socio-economic drivers of fire through the widespread collection and distribution of harmonized fire data at the global level.  However, creating and sharing such knowledge requires national and international investments in scientific and operational fire science programmes.
  • Catastrophic fires are undeniably part of our future.  Current scientific estimates are conservative, meaning that changes in fire activity might be worse than anticipated.  We have to act now to mitigate catastrophic fires and limit the occurrence of disastrous situations.  Given disparities but also similarities in the levels of fire risk around the world, and the capacities to manage it, knowledge and technology transfers through international cooperation will be a paramount factor in learning to live with fire.

This Occasional Paper is the result of a large collaborative effort by fire scientists and practitioners who believe that learning to co-exist with changing fire activity is not only possible but necessary if we, as a global society, are to adapt to climate disruption and keep our natural and cultural landscapes healthy, resilient, and safe for the next generations.  The work presented hereafter was developed during, and as follow-up to, the Global Expert Workshop on ‘Fire and Climate Change’ hosted in Vienna, Austria, on 2-4 July 2018.  It stresses the diversity and the complexity of the global fire situation, a situation that is evolving, positively or negatively, in unknown proportions due to global environmental changes — with climate disruption being the most acknowledged manifestation.

Conclusion – Learning To Live With Fire

We live on a flammable planet; although not everything is meant to burn, fire cannot be eliminated.  Ongoing global climate disruption combined with other planetary changes is leading to more frequent and more extreme fires exposing vulnerable societies, economies, and ecosystems to disaster situations.  The recognition of fire activity as a worsening hazard threatening human security is the necessary first step towards international co-operation for the mitigation of disaster risk situations in fire-prone areas.

However, we are not defenceless.  Fire scientists in many regions of the world have been developing successful strategies and tools based on cutting-edge technologies for several years.  Those are now mature enough to be up-scaled and adapted to other geographic contexts as part of national fire management frameworks.  Additionally, integrating existing and future scientific knowledge on climate disruption and changing fire regimes, and systematically collecting long-term data on current and past fire uses will foster better informed decisions, models and enhanced efforts towards Wildfire Disaster Risk Reduction, as well as contribute to the development of Sustainable Anthropocene Fire Regimes.

We hope this paper will be a catalyst for a paradigm shift, so fires are not seen as an enemy to fight but as natural and necessary phenomena, as well as a useful and necessary tool that can often help protect people and nature.  It is paramount to revise, fund, and fulfil future management, research, and governance needs if we are, as world citizens, to trigger a societal change that will help us better live with fires.

The information and insights contained in this Occasional Paper connect together to promote the use of several existing solutions to the problem: defining national fire risk reduction frameworks, collecting and analyzing relevant traditional knowledge and biophysical fire data, investing in fire detection and prediction technologies, involving and preparing stakeholders, and improving fire use and landscape management in ways that help control the fuel load and the spread of fire, while limiting GreenHouse Gas (#GHG) emissions and protecting the communities and the landscapes they live in and often depend on.

The Status Quo is no longer an option; it is time to make Integrated Fire Management the rule rather than the exception.

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